Catching Box Office Fire

Imagine this: Catching Fire, opening weekend. Glorious, isn’t it? Crowded, but still glorious. And with those type of crowds, you can expect another thing: THE BIG BUCKS!

jennifer-lawrence-catching-fire-poster-610x903

Box Office FIYAH, we say!

The Hunger Games made $152.5 million during its opening weekend. Which is why it’s a bit strange to see Deadline (via DWTC) reporting that Lionsgate is only expecting Catching Fire to make $140 – $150 million opening weekend. Of course, there are some factors to consider:

1) The Hunger Games came out in March, a time of year during which there is absolutely ZERO competition in theaters. NADA! ZIP! ZILCH, WE SAY! We remember laughing at the suggestion that THG was competing against Wrath of the Titans. This time, there’s viable competition in the form of Hemsy’s older brother Chris in Thor: The Dark World. But…

2) Catching Fire has a massive fanbase that would come out to see the movie, perhaps multiple times, during opening weekend no matter when that opening weekend took place. Plus, Thor: The Dark World comes out two weeks prior, so one movie won’t truly interfere with the other’s box office numbers. And…

3) The only movie coming out in wide release the same weekend is The Delivery Man, a Vince Vaughn comedy that may be charming, but isn’t a must-see for anyone we know. Though…

No offense Vince Vaughn but.. THIS WINS.

No offense Vince Vaughn but.. THIS WINS.

4) The highest grossing November weekend box office of all time is The Twilight Saga: New Moon, which made $142.8 million. This means Lionsgate believes Catching Fire could pummel that record. Doing so would put it in at least the top 8 box office weekends of all time.

Maybe we’re cocky, but we don’t care. Lionsgate, you’re aiming low! What’s your deal, dude?! November is prime movie-going season and Catching Fire is in top shape! Give your film some more credit!

Let’s Catch You Up On The Fanaticism,
The Girl With The Pearl

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3 comments

  1. Honestly Lionsgate is just saying its a lot lower so they can be “shocked” and get more headlines when Catching Fire does better. Tracking for Thor: The Dark World has the debut around 80 million and 12 million debut for Frozen so they are not even a competition at this point.

    THR and TheWrap are reporting around 185-190 million debut, making it #2 domestic debut of *ALL TIME* beating out Iron Man 3 without the use of any 3D.

  2. ^Yeah, I heard movie studios sometimes undersell opening weekend estimates on purpose. Better to open above expectations than below, which could be considered a “flop” or a disappointment, even if it’s a lot of money either way. Remember, this is the era of the OPENING WEEKEND. I take all the “estimates” with a grain of salt anyway, because you never really know until a movie actually makes what it makes. So, we’ll see.

    also…IT’S NOVEMBER! aka, Catching Fire Month.

  3. I’m an old Wall Street hand and I can tell you that companies always do this. It’s called ‘managing expectations’. Meanwhile, you’ve written a very interesting analysis of the competition — well done!

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